CALIBRATION OF PHYSICALLY BASED SLOPE-STABILITY MODELS: A CASE STUDY IN NOVA FRIBURGO (RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL)

Resumo

Landslides cause enormous economic damage and fatalities worldwide. The “Mega disaster” in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro took place on 11th and 12th January 2011 and impacted seven municipalities. These landslide events are considered the worst disasters in Brazilian history. This paper presents simulations with single and multiple calibration regions based on SINMAP (Stability INdex MAPping) in Nova Friburgo. The outputs obtained were further analysed to quantify the spatial discrepancy between the landslides triggered by the January 2011 event and the model results. The reliability of each simulation was also evaluated through ROC analysis and significant results are highlighted. Limitations in the availability of data, in particular, the lack of verified geotechnical parameters in some areas may have compromised the predictive performance of models.